Rising Temperatures, Rising Threats: How Climate Change is Driving Dengue in India
Rising Temperatures, Rising Threats: How Climate Change is Driving Dengue in India
Rising temperatures and fluctuating monsoon rainfall could increase dengue-related deaths in India by 13% by 2030 and 23–40% by 2050, according to a study.
The researchers at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, used an artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) model capable of predicting dengue outbreaks, unveiling critical links between climate change and the escalating burden of dengue in India.
With the country contributing to nearly a third of global dengue cases, the research highlights how rising temperatures and erratic monsoon patterns are intensifying outbreaks, particularly in hotspot regions like Pune.
Published in the journal Scientific Reports, the study is spearheaded by Dr. Sophia Yacob and Dr. Roxy Mathew Koll, along with a team of international experts. It sheds light on how climate factors—temperature, rainfall, and humidity—interact to influence dengue transmission and mortality.
The Climate-Dengue Connection
The research identifies a perilous combination of climatic conditions that amplify dengue risks in Pune:
Rainfall: Moderate rainfall (up to 150 mm per week) sustains mosquito breeding, while heavy rains flush out larvae, offering a temporary reprieve.
Humidity: Levels between 60–78% during the monsoon season further exacerbate the spread of dengue.
The findings emphasize the role of monsoon variability, with evenly distributed moderate rainfall linked to higher dengue cases, while heavy downpours and dry spells reduce mosquito proliferation.
AI-Powered Early Warning System
The research team developed an artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) model capable of predicting dengue outbreaks over two months in advance. Unlike existing systems, which rely solely on temperature thresholds, this model incorporates region-specific interactions between temperature, rainfall, and humidity, enabling tailored dengue forecasts.“Early warning systems like ours can empower health departments to act proactively, reducing the disease burden,” said Dr. Koll.
A Looming Public Health Crisis
Projections indicate a dire future for dengue in India as climate change accelerates:
By 2030, dengue-related deaths may rise by 13%.
By 2050, mortality could increase by 23–40%.
By 2100, unchecked fossil fuel emissions could drive a staggering 112% increase in fatalities.
These alarming figures stem from a projected 1.2–3.5°C rise in temperatures across emission scenarios, alongside increasingly erratic monsoon rainfall.
The Need for Better Data and Collaboration
Despite the model’s success in Pune, a lack of comprehensive health data from other states hampers broader implementation."We approached health departments in high-burden states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, but cooperation remains a challenge," said Dr. Koll.The study underscores the importance of data-sharing and collaboration between meteorological agencies, health departments, and policymakers to develop effective regional warning systems for climate-sensitive diseases.
Policy Implications and Future Directions
The study provides a roadmap for integrating climate science into public health policies. By leveraging IMD’s extended-range forecasts of monsoon patterns, authorities can fine-tune dengue preparedness strategies.“This collaboration between scientists, health departments, and governments highlights how interdisciplinary efforts can address complex challenges like climate-induced health risks,” said Sujata Saunik, Chief Secretary, Government of Maharashtra.
Voices from the Field
The study’s findings have resonated widely among experts:
“This is a step toward bridging science and action,” said Abhiyant Tiwari from NRDC India.
“Health applications are the ultimate test for climate predictions,” added Dr. Raghu Murtugudde, University of Maryland.
“Our model lays the foundation for climate-resilient communities,” remarked Dr. Amir Sapkota, University of Maryland.
With India at the forefront of both climate change and vector-borne disease risks, the study serves as a clarion call for urgent action. The AI-powered warning system, if scaled up, could save countless lives by turning climate science into actionable public health strategies.
